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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.